据彭博新闻社报道,三家民间机构(China Carbon Forum,ICF International Inc. SinoCarbon Innovation & Investment Co)今年访谈了中国260位碳交易参与者,综合总结他们的主要观点和预测如下:

——90%的受访者认为中国碳排放将在2030年或之前达峰;50%的受访者认为中国在2025年以前就会达峰。

——50%的受访者认为中国的碳交易市场在2020年前就会全面实施;另有44%的受访者认为中国碳交易市场要到2021-2025年之间才会完善。

——95%的受访者认为需要国家层面的立法或者中央政府的法规来确保相关方遵守的碳交易市场规则。

——根据受访者的预测值进行平均,2020年中国碳交易市场碳价为人民币74元/吨;2025年碳价为108元/吨。

——38%的受访者认为中国企业在2017年的项目投资决策会考虑碳交易市场的因素;而75%的受访者认为2025年投资决策将受到碳交易市场相当程度的影响。

——2025年,中国会利用碳交易、环境税、信息披露和能源配额交易等方式来减少排放。

——61%的受访者认为中国的碳市场将在2030年以前与国际碳市场衔接。

碳道根据微信公众号“国际能源小数据”及彭博社报道综合整理

报道原文:

China Seen Reaching Peak Carbon Emissions by 2030: Study

China’s carbon emissions will probably peak on or before 2030, a survey of industry participants found.

About 90 percent of 260 stakeholders in the nation’s carbon market gave that forecast, while more than half said the milestone would be reached by 2025 at the latest, according to the survey, which was conducted by China Carbon Forum, ICF International Inc. and SinoCarbon Innovation & Investment Co. between March and July.

The results underscored industry confidence in China’s efforts to meet a target of capping emissions by 2030 as the nation shifts to renewable energy and curbs coal power. The world’s biggest clean-energy investor has also pledged to start a national carbon market later this year to reduce emissions.
Almost 50 percent of participants in the survey expect China to complete the carbon market by 2020 with all key segments in place, while 44 percent anticipate that will happen between 2021 and 2025.

Among survey responses since 2013, “we saw a very consistent expectation that China’s carbon market will be fully functional around 2020,” Dimitri de Boer, vice chairman of China Carbon Forum, said at a press conference in Beijing. “This requires lots of investment in capacity building and in getting all stakeholders aligned.”

Other findings:

The average carbon price is forecast to be 74 yuan ($11) per metric ton in 2020, almost double the 38 yuan estimated in 2017. By 2025, the price may surge to 108 yuan a ton

38 percent of the stakeholders expect investment decisions in 2017 will be affected significantly or to some extent by carbon trading. The figure surges to 75 percent for 2025

Through 2025, China will shift to carbon trading, environmental taxes, information disclosure and energy-quota trading to reduce emissions
95 percent of survey participants said country-level laws or central governmental regulations are needed to maintain compliance with carbon-trading rules

61 percent of stakeholders think China’s carbon market will be linked with other international systems by 2030

— With assistance by Feifei Shen

(来源:碳道)

Categories: 碳市观察